Thunderstorm Threat Returns Today to the Greenwich Area, More Likely Friday!

Thunderstorms Return to the Greenwich Area Today! Severe Thunderstorms Arrive Tomorrow!

Good Morning,

As more humid air continues to flow into the East early today, we're going


to be watching a cool front closely during the next 24-36 hours... This

front is currently located in the Great Lakes, and it probably will not reach southeastern New York State to Fairfield County and southern New


England until tomorrow (Friday) evening... But nonetheless, this is going to be one of the key

components in our forecast over the next few days... There will be intervals of clouds and sun

today, with most temperatures reaching the mid and upper-80s this afternoon... Showers and a

couple of thunderstorms will be developing across the northern and central Appalachians this

afternoon, and these should tend to drift a bit to the south and east this afternoon and this

evening... So, after a couple of "uneventful" days that have lacked any rainfall, we should see

some activity appearing on the regional radar mosaic this afternoon and early tonight...

But, as we've been saying now for the past couple of days, it appears that the showers and

thunderstorms which will be flaring up later today will "only be the beginning" of what should be a


pretty active weather pattern... Some of the suburbs of Westchester and Fairflield County could have local rainfall


amounts of up to an inch or two this afternoon and early tonight... However, later tomorrow,

tomorrow night and Saturday, the regional radar mosaic should have numerous showers and

heavier thunderstorms on it in the bigger cities located along the I-95 corridor... As a low pressure

system forms along the front out in the Ohio Valley today, it will be poised to move into western

portions of New York and Pennsylvania tomorrow afternoon... And, the very warm and moist air

located out ahead of it will be getting tapped by both this low pressure system and a slow-moving

cool front that will be trailing behind it... And, if there's enough sunshine tomorrow, and

temperatures do manage to reach the upper-80s and lower-90s like we're expecting, there could be

a few strong or severe thunderstorms which will be erupting in mid-Atlantic states... Much like we

were saying yesterday, the greatest threat for wind gusts in excess of 50 miles per hour and

torrential downpours tomorrow afternoon will be across much of Pennsylvania, Maryland,

Delaware and western parts of New Jersey... After that, what remains of this outbreak of strong

thunderstorms will probably cause rain heavy enough to produce flash flooding in the Tri-State

Area and across much of southern and central New England from tomorrow night into Saturday...

The global models are starting to reach more of a consensus on the timing of the worst of this

weather, and these would imply that there should be a 12-hour window in cities like Philadelphia,

Baltimore, Washington, D.C. and Allentown, PA where the heaviest rain will occur between 3 p.m.

tomorrow and 3 a.m. on Saturday... Meanwhile, for New York City to Greenwich, New Haven, much of Long Island and in

southeastern New England, the heaviest rain should take place between 8 p.m. tomorrow and 8 a.

m. on Saturday before it starts to wind down...


Precipitable water values are going to be quite high tomorrow, tomorrow night and early Saturday, with

some of the guidance indicating that a vertically integrated column of air could produce up to two inches of

rainfall... We believe that a general 1-2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of up to 3 inches, is a

pretty safe call for the entire Tri-State Area tomorrow, especially in Westchester and Fairfield County, tomorrow night and into Saturday...

After the low pressure system and its attending cool front manage to move off shore on Sunday, it will turn

out mostly sunny and nicer with lowering humidity... Temperatures should be running mostly in the mid-80s

on Sunday and Monday, and then we'll have some other opportunities to get rain Tuesday and/or

Wednesday of next week... Have a good day!!!



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